BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 17. Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, reaching an average of 105.13 mb/d, according to OPEC’s latest monthly outlook, Trend reports.
The forecast remains unchanged from the previous month, as upward revisions for some OECD countries were offset by weaker projections for key non-OECD economies.
Stronger-than-anticipated demand in the first quarter of 2025 from OECD Americas and Europe led to upward adjustments. However, these were balanced by downward revisions for the second quarter, particularly in China and India. OPEC attributes the softer outlook in these non-OECD countries to potential impacts from evolving U.S. trade policies.
In the OECD region, demand is projected to increase by about 160,000 barrels per day year-on-year, largely driven by OECD Americas. Non-OECD countries are expected to contribute the bulk of the global growth, with demand rising by over 1.1 mb/d. China, India, and Other Asia are expected to be the main contributors.
Jet fuel and gasoline will be the primary drivers of product-level demand. Jet kerosene is forecast to rise by approximately 450,000 barrels per day, supported by strong air travel demand. Gasoline demand is expected to grow by about 380,000 barrels per day, reflecting continued strength in road mobility.
Additionally, capacity expansions in the petrochemical sector—especially in China and the Middle East—are set to support demand for LPG/NGLs and naphtha, with each projected to grow by around 500,000 barrels per day.
