BAKU, Azerbaijan, August 22. Uzbekistan is emerging as one of Central Asia's key examples of efforts to combat land degradation and restore ecosystems, but growing water shortages and climate pressures could complicate the country's progress.
This was reflected in the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification's (UNCCD) regional thematic report titled Central Asia: Region of Ancient Traditions and Modern Perspectives.
The report highlights Uzbekistan's environmental initiatives alongside broader challenges facing the region, including land degradation, shrinking water resources, soil salinization and growing pressure on the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins.
Uzbekistan has planted saxaul across 2 million hectares of the dried Aral Sea bed, helping stabilize the exposed seabed and reduce dust and sand movement. According to the report, actual dust retention from these efforts reached 35%-40%, significantly above the initial forecast of 15%-18%.
The country's "Yashil Makon" initiative is also targeting the planting of around 200 million seedlings annually, while the government aims to increase urban green coverage from 8% to 30% by 2030. Uzbekistan has also expanded water-saving agriculture, with drip irrigation covering about 1 million hectares.
Trend's analysis shows that Uzbekistan's environmental policy is increasingly moving from individual restoration projects toward a broader land-management strategy that combines reforestation, water conservation, legislation and community participation. The country's national land-degradation neutrality targets, approved in 2023, include restoring degraded land, expanding forest cover and introducing water-saving technologies.
The report notes that forested areas across Central Asia increased by 6.4% during the period assessed, with Uzbekistan recording one of the strongest increases at 39%. Tajikistan followed with a 23% increase.
Trend's calculations show that Uzbekistan's reported increase in forested areas was more than six times the regional average, underscoring the scale of the country's reforestation efforts. However, these gains are occurring alongside a significant deterioration in regional water resources. The area covered by water bodies across Central Asia declined by 18.5%, while the decline in Uzbekistan was approaching 50%, according to the report. This creates a particular challenge because newly planted trees in arid areas require irrigation during their first several years of growth.
Water availability could become the main constraint on Uzbekistan's environmental restoration efforts. The country is located downstream in the region's major river systems and depends heavily on water flows originating in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, while much of its agricultural land is concentrated in water-intensive irrigated areas. The economic dimension further highlights Uzbekistan's dependence on regional connectivity. According to macroeconomic data presented in the report, Uzbekistan's 2023 exports totaled $24.3 billion, while imports reached $38.1 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of about $13.7 billion. The country's GDP stood at approximately $102 billion.
At the same time, Uzbekistan maintained substantial trade links with its Central Asian neighbors. The data show that Uzbekistan exported about $4.4 billion worth of goods to Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan in 2023. In the opposite direction, Uzbekistan imported approximately $2.8 billion from those four countries. Central Asian neighbors accounted for roughly 18.2% of Uzbekistan's total exports and about 7.3% of its total imports in 2023. Uzbekistan therefore recorded an estimated $1.6 billion trade surplus with the other four Central Asian economies, despite running a much larger overall trade deficit. Kazakhstan was the largest regional market for Uzbek goods, with imports from Uzbekistan reaching about $3.04 billion. Turkmenistan followed at approximately $950 million, while Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan imported around $284 million and $142 million, respectively.
These trade links reinforce the importance of regional cooperation on environmental and water issues. Uzbekistan's economic relationships with its neighbors are already substantial, while the country's agriculture, energy security and ecological restoration remain closely connected to transboundary resources. The report identifies a structural conflict between upstream energy needs and downstream irrigation demand. Reservoirs in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are increasingly operated to generate electricity during winter, while Uzbekistan and other downstream countries require greater water availability during the summer agricultural season.
This creates what the report describes as a regional "water compromise" problem: upstream countries need water for energy generation, while downstream economies depend on predictable summer flows for irrigation.
Uzbekistan also faces a persistent soil-salinization problem. Secondary salinization is particularly acute in the lower reaches of the Amu Darya, including Karakalpakstan and Khorezm, where irrigated agriculture has historically placed substantial pressure on soil and water resources. Climate change adds another layer of risk. Glacial coverage in the Aral Sea basin has declined by around 30% over the past 50 years, according to the report. Accelerated melting could temporarily increase river flows, but the resulting decline in glacier reserves could eventually reduce the region's long-term water supply.
In Trend's assessment, Uzbekistan's experience demonstrates both the potential and limits of environmental restoration in an increasingly water-stressed region. The country's large-scale saxaul planting, expansion of water-saving irrigation and growth in forested areas show that meaningful ecological recovery is possible. However, Uzbekistan's position as a major downstream economy means that sustaining those gains will increasingly depend on regional water cooperation as well as economic interdependence. Its substantial trade with neighboring countries provides an existing foundation for deeper regional coordination, while the growing pressure on shared water resources makes cooperation increasingly important for both environmental and economic stability.
For Uzbekistan, the environmental challenge is therefore not limited to restoring degraded land. Ensuring reliable access to water, reducing pressure on irrigated agriculture and coordinating water and energy policies across Central Asia will be critical to determining whether the country's restoration gains can be sustained through 2030 and beyond.
