BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 28. Trade between the countries through which the Middle Corridor passes could increase 1.5-fold in value terms and by 60% in physical volume by 2040 compared to 2023.
This was stated in the World Bank report “Integration: World-Class Trade Logistics along the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor.”
According to forecasts, trade dynamics between individual countries will vary.
“The growth pattern reflects persistent constraints. Countries’ export baskets remain heavily concentrated in hydrocarbons, metals, and other bulk commodities, while trade in higher-value-added goods—including machinery, electronics, and manufactured goods, is expanding from a relatively low base.
Despite the expected increase in the share of higher-value-added goods, the use of the Trans-Caspian Transport Corridor for their transportation remains relatively limited.
“In addition, trade costs along the corridor remain high compared to comparable regions. The report attributes this to geographical characteristics and institutional fragmentation,” the bank reports.
As noted, despite the growth in trade volumes, the pace of structural transformation remains moderate, which underscores the importance of the corridor’s operational efficiency in supporting diversification.
The World Bank characterizes the Middle Corridor as an emerging international trade route distinguished by its length, complexity, and fragmentation.
"This corridor is a multimodal freight network connecting two continents. The corridor’s routes pass through Central Asia, East Asia, the South Caucasus, Türkiye, and on to Europe, and their length can exceed 10,000 kilometers.
The multimodal nature of the corridor, which includes rail and road transport, short-sea shipping, and the interaction between seaports and inland ports, increases operational complexity compared to routes that use a single mode of transport.
Depending on the route, the delivery of cargo from the shipper to the recipient via the Central Corridor involves crossing several borders. “Typically, a single route involves four to five border crossings, two changes in rail gauge, up to four transshipments from rail to vessels and back, and up to 10 entries into or exits from customs transit procedures,” the World Bank reports.
According to the World Bank, the high degree of fragmentation of the corridor complicates the management of this system: “Its operation involves several rail operators, shipping lines, port and customs authorities from countries with varying levels of income and degrees of economic integration, as well as national and supranational bodies responsible for decision-making and coordination.”
The World Bank notes that ensuring the effective operation of such a system is one of the most challenging tasks in the field of global logistics development.
