BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 2. TotalEnergies has presented three scenarios for the development of the global energy system through 2060, highlighting the differing roles of fossil fuels, renewables and electricity depending on the pace of the energy transition and international climate cooperation.
The company published the eighth edition of its TotalEnergies Energy Outlook, examining global energy trends, investment flows, geopolitical developments and possible pathways towards decarbonization.
According to the report, demand for all energy sources, including coal, oil, natural gas and electricity, continues to increase as economies develop. However, the growth of fossil fuel consumption and associated greenhouse gas emissions is slowing, while global economic growth remains above 3%.
"To meet this energy need, demand for all energy sources is still growing today: coal, oil, gas and electricity, renewables in particular. However, the growth rate of fossil fuels and of their associated greenhouse gas emissions is slowing, while global economic growth continues at a pace above 3%," the report notes.
TotalEnergies said investment in low-carbon energy, including the electrification of end-use sectors, nearly doubled between 2015 and 2025, rising from $1.2 trillion to $2.1 trillion. China remains the leading player in the expansion of low-carbon technologies, accounting for around 60% of new solar panel installations, 70% of wind turbine additions and 60% of electric vehicle sales, according to the outlook.
The report also points to energy security as an increasingly important factor shaping the transition, particularly following the Strait of Hormuz crisis in 2026 and the disruption caused by the Ukraine crisis in 2022. "Resilience and security of supply require developing domestically available energies (renewables, biofuels, etc.) as well as diversifying supply sources and storing fossil fuels, given their weight in today's energy system."
Three scenarios through 2060
TotalEnergies' three scenarios — Trends, Momentum and Rupture — are based on different assumptions about government climate policies, technological progress, international cooperation and consumer behaviour.
Under the Trends scenario, current policy directions and market developments continue, with the deployment of mature low-carbon technologies such as solar and wind power, electric vehicles and heat pumps. However, infrastructure limitations, geopolitical tensions and cost barriers constrain their expansion.
In this scenario, OECD countries do not achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, while China approaches the target by 2060. Global demand for petroleum products rises and reaches a plateau during the 2030s before gradually declining. Natural gas demand continues to increase before stabilising in the 2040s.
TotalEnergies estimates that this pathway would result in global warming of 2.6°C to 2.8°C by 2100.
The Momentum scenario assumes a faster energy transition, with OECD countries approaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and China by 2060. It envisages greater electrification, the near phase-out of coal in OECD countries, a substantial reduction in coal consumption in China and limited growth in India. Natural gas would continue to serve as a transition fuel in power generation and industry, while low-carbon hydrogen and sustainable fuels would be deployed in sectors that are difficult to electrify, including aviation and shipping. However, fossil fuels would still account for half of the growth in energy demand in India and other parts of the world because of insufficient investment in low-carbon alternatives. The scenario would lead to an estimated global temperature increase of 2.3°C to 2.4°C by 2100.
The Rupture scenario represents a more ambitious pathway, designed to limit global warming to below 2°C by 2100, in line with the Paris Agreement. TotalEnergies said achieving this outcome would require substantially stronger international cooperation and faster global decarbonization. Under this scenario, coal consumption in power generation would decline much more rapidly, while the share of natural gas would remain broadly stable. A significant expansion of low-carbon electricity generation would accompany deeper electrification across the economy. The company estimates that this pathway would limit global warming to 1.8°C to 1.9°C by 2100.
