TASHKENT, Uzbekistan, September 27. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Uzbekistan's gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.5 percent in 2023–24, Trend reports.
Thus, the forecast has been left unchanged compared to the previous outlook in May 2023.
The bank stated that well-managed IPOs and privatizations may strengthen the outlook. A further plunge in remittances, however, is a key downside risk in the short run. In the long run, the country’s development is constrained by aging infrastructure and water supply issues.
“The economy grew by 5.6 percent year on year (YoY) in the first half of 2023. Elevated external demand strengthened the country’s exports (up 31 percent YoY). However, remittances dropped in the first half of 2023 (by 21.5 percent YoY), albeit from a high level," the bank noted.
Nevertheless, as per the data from the report, domestic demand was supported by a 21.9 percent YoY increase in nominal wages in the second quarter and buoyant credit growth. Retail trade expanded at a rate of 6.9 percent YoY in the first half of 2023. Other sectors, including industry (up 5.6 percent YoY), construction (up 4.8 percent), services (up 12.3 percent YoY), and agriculture (up 3.8 percent YoY), grew as well.
GDP growth in Central Asia is forecast to remain robust, at 5.7 percent in 2023 and 5.9 percent in 2024. Drivers include government spending, China’s demand for commodities, intermediated trade with and exports to Russia, remittances, and the relocation of companies from Russia.
