BAKU, Azerbaijan, April 16. Global crude oil processing is expected to average 83.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, according to the latest outlook from the International Energy Agency (IEA), Trend reports.
The projection reflects a downward revision of 230,000 barrels per day due to softer economic activity and weaker oil demand expectations.
Non-OECD countries are set to drive growth, adding around 830,000 b/d, which more than compensates for a 490,000 b/d year-on-year decline in OECD refining as older capacity continues to shut down. By 2026, global refinery runs are forecast to rise further by 360,000 b/d to reach 83.6 mb/d, supported by continued growth in refined product demand.
Seasonal maintenance is expected to pull refinery activity down to a low of 81.6 mb/d in May, with operations rebounding to a projected peak of 84.6 mb/d in August as maintenance cycles ease.
In March, refining margins showed regional divergence. Margins in the Atlantic Basin declined, particularly for light sweet crudes, while Asia saw improved margins for sour grades. North Sea Dated crude performed strongly during the month, narrowing refining profits in Europe by approximately $2 per barrel compared to February. Meanwhile, US Gulf Coast margins slipped slightly but remained among the highest globally. In Asia, sweet crudes lost some ground amid a wider market shift. Overall, the drop in refining profitability was mainly driven by weaker middle distillate cracks.
