BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.15
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Eurasia’s gas production and exports are set to increase by 8 percent and 17 percent respectively in 2021, but total natural gas output is not expected to recover to 2019 levels, due to slower growth from domestic demand, Trend reports with reference to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“The region’s export-oriented energy- and gas-intensive industries are expected to suffer from the economic slowdown in key markets, ultimately weighing on the recovery in the region’s gas demand. Exports through the traditional pipeline export corridors from Russia to Europe and from Central Asia to China are expected to increase by 9 percent and 5 percent respectively in 2021, despite the continuing strong supply of LNG.
“Pipeline exports from Russia to China are expected to reach 10 bcm in 2021, supported by output ramping up from the Chayandinskoye field. Azeri exports from the Shah Deniz II field to Europe are expected to further increase in a range of 4-6 bcm in 2021, with the commissioning of the TAP pipeline in Q4 2020 and deliveries scheduled to reach Italy. The start-up of train 4 at Yamal LNG in Russia could increase LNG exports by 1.2 bcm/y from 2021.
“Eurasia accounted for around 30 percent of inter-regional gas supply in 2019 and played a crucial role in balancing the global gas market in 2020 by absorbing the majority of the demand shock caused by the Covid-19- induced lockdowns and economic slowdown. This has been largely facilitated by the intra- and inter-annual flexibility mechanisms incorporated in pipeline gas supply agreements.
“First estimates suggest that the region’s gas production fell by over 7.5 percent y-o-y (or above 50 bcm) in the first three quarters of the year – more than in any other gas-producing region. This has been driven by domestic consumption falling by 5 percent and exports plummeting by 14 percent yo-y, despite the start-up of new export corridors,” said the IEA.
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