BAKU, Azerbaijan, Mar. 1
By Maryana Akhmedova – Trend:
Due to the unstable situation in Ukraine, the forecast for Georgia’s GDP growth has been revised from an initial 5 percent to 3 percent, considering already imposed economic sanctions on Russia, Trend reports via the review from the Galt & Taggart investment bank.
However, Gal t& Taggart expects the growth of the trade turnover, remittances inflow, and tourism sector to remain positive, even in the worst-case scenario.
In the case of Georgia’s GDP growth at 3 percent, Galt & Taggart expect the inflation rate at 7 percent, the monetary policy rate - at 10.5 percent, while the exchange rate of Georgian lari against the US dollar will be set at 3.25/$1. Also, in this scenario, the tourism revenues in 2022 will recover by 75 percent of the 2019 level (compared to the initial forecast of 85 percent).
Meanwhile, in the worst-case scenario, Georgia’s economy may even decline by 1 percent, while the inflation rate will be at 9 percent, the refinancing rate - at 11 percent, and the exchange rate of Georgian lari against the US dollar will be set at 3.4/$1. As for tourism revenues, the figure is expected to recover by 60 percent of the 2019 level.
As Georgia remains open for Russian visitors with limited other alternatives, Galt & Taggart does not rule out growth in tourism arrivals despite the worsened economic situation.
“We also do not rule out an improvement in growth prospects, since Georgia, being a relatively stable destination, can attract financial assets from the countries of the region”, Galt & Taggart said.
---
Follow the author on Twitter: @mariiiakhm
