BAKU, Azerbaijan, Nov. 4
Trend:
The volume of electricity generation by wind farms in Kazakhstan is expected to surpass the volume of hydropower starting from 2045 and will reach 14 billion kWh in 2050, Trend reports citing IHS Markit analytical company’s forecasts.
According to the company, from 2021 through 2050 the total demand for primary energy resources is expected to slightly decrease, and over the scenario period, it will fall by 2.9 percent to 86.8 million tons (tons of oil equivalent, Mtoe) amid further growth in total energy efficiency.
The demand trends foreseen by the company’s baseline scenario greatly vary depending on the type of fuel. Consumption of natural gas is expected to notably increase (by 25.1 percent to 26.6 Mtoe), but the demand for primary electricity will grow even sharper - in percentage terms (by 180.8 percent to 7.3 million tons).
Oil demand will also continue to grow strongly (having increased by 31.8 percent to 20.8 Mtoe), and coal consumption over the forecast period - starting from 2021 - will significantly reduce (in aggregate by 35.4 percent to 32.1 Mtoe).
The continued decline in the use of coal in the electricity sector - primarily due to the active use of natural gas, along with a more moderate expansion of the use of renewable energy sources and nuclear energy, will be the key driver of changes in the fuel balance by 2050.
Efficiency gains will have a dampening effect on the growth of aggregate gas consumption, and therefore consumption won’t grow as fast as in earlier periods.
According to the baseline scenario until 2050, the largest share in the volume of domestic demand for primary energy resources in Kazakhstan (excluding mined uranium) will remain with coal (37 percent), followed by gas (31 percent), oil (24 percent) and primary electricity (eight percent).
“In the primary electricity sector, from our point of view, wind energy has exceptional growth potential in the forecast period. We also assume that during the scenario period - starting from the mid-2030s - the fuel balance of the electric power industry will be replenished with nuclear energy, but its share in the total generation volume will remain comparatively moderate,” added IHS Markit.
