BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 23. Electricity could cost-effectively meet 33% of global final energy consumption by 2035, up from the current 23%.
This was reflected in an analysis by the International Energy Agency (IEA), prepared at the request of Türkiye and Australia for discussions ahead of COP31.
The report reviews opportunities to accelerate electrification on a global scale and assesses its implications for energy security and climate goals.
According to the document, assuming the use of currently available technologies and energy prices consistent with levels prior to the recent supply shock, electricity could cost-effectively supply 33% of global final energy consumption by 2035, compared to 23% today. This would bring the world closer to the electrification target of 35% currently under discussion.
The document noted that, given current energy prices amid the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, shifting an even larger share of global energy consumption to electricity could become economically viable.
The IEA reports that global electricity consumption has grown faster than economic output in recent years—and at nearly twice the rate of overall energy demand—driven primarily by the use of air conditioning, data centers, advanced manufacturing, and electric vehicles.
According to the agency, under an accelerated electrification scenario, fuel-importing nations could see their energy import costs drop by more than $400 billion by 2035 compared to 2025 levels.
The report emphasized that global oil consumption by 2035 could be 18 million barrels per day lower than it would be if current trends continued. The IEA attributes this effect primarily to the more rapid adoption of electric vehicles.
"Electrification can also help reduce carbon dioxide emissions in transport, buildings, and industry. These three sectors account for more than half of energy-related CO2 emissions.
Under an accelerated electrification scenario, CO2 emissions in these three sectors could fall by 40 percent by 2035. According to the report, this would be sufficient to put total energy-related CO2 emissions on a downward trajectory, regardless of the electricity generation mix.
At the same time, the rapid expansion of domestic low-carbon electricity sources could further enhance the benefits of electrification in terms of energy security and emissions reduction," the agency pointed out.
The IEA highlighted significant potential for cost-effective increases in electrification across all regions, although opportunities and priorities vary by country.
"In emerging and developing economies, this potential is linked, in particular, to switching agricultural water pumps to electric power, expanding the use of electric two- and three-wheelers in densely populated cities, and increasing opportunities for small businesses to use electricity in sectors such as food and textile production.
However, realizing this electrification potential will require additional investment in power generation and electricity grids, as well as the deployment of smarter, more flexible energy systems.
The report also noted the need to address emerging threats to electricity system security, including supply chain concentration for key technologies and critical minerals, cybersecurity risks, natural disasters, and climate-related threats," the IEA said.
The agency stressed that to ensure the benefits of electrification are widely shared, public authorities need to help certain households and businesses manage upfront costs.
