BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 17. Kazakhstan plans to produce 96 million tons of oil in 2027.
This was reported in a statement issued by Kazakhstan’s Kurultai, citing remarks by First Vice Minister of National Economy Azamat Amrin at a Kurultai meeting.
"This year, we planned 100.5, but in fact, it comes out to 96 million tons. For next year, 96 million tons, with further growth of around 99 and up to 100 in subsequent years," he said.
Amrin said that the draft national budget for 2027-2029 assumes an oil price of $70 per barrel.
Earlier, the Government of Kazakhstan said oil production in the country decreased by 8.4% year-on-year to 61.7 million tons in January-August 2026. The 2026 oil production forecast was revised down to 96 million tons.
According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Kazakhstan’s production of petroleum and other liquid fuels is forecast to average 2.09 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026 and 2.21 million bpd in 2027.
According to Trend calculations, Kazakhstan’s projected average liquid fuels output in 2026 is 2.8% below the estimated 2025 level of 2.15 million bpd. The 2027 forecast is 2.8% above the 2025 estimate and 5.7% higher than the 2026 forecast.
Furthermore, the EIA estimates Kazakhstan’s liquid fuels output at 1.75 million bpd in the first quarter of 2026 and 2.24 million bpd in the second quarter.
Output is forecast at 2.08 million bpd in the third quarter and is expected to rise to 2.28 million bpd in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, Moody’s said in a report obtained by Trend that attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the drone strike on Russia’s Orenburg gas processing plant in June 2026, Russia’s suspension of Druzhba pipeline shipments from May 2026, and a fire at the Tengiz field affected Kazakhstan’s oil production, but the impact of these disruptions is expected to be temporary.
"However, the disruptions have so far been temporary, and the country's total oil production is likely to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels, with growth postponed rather than lost and potentially resuming in 2027 if no further disruptions occur", Moody's said.
