BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 1. Serbia's GDP is expected to grow by 4 percent in 2025 and 2026, according to the latest outlook from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Trend reports
Preliminary estimates for 2024 suggest growth will remain steady at 3.8 percent, unchanged from the previous year.
The EBRD attributes Serbia's economic performance to strong growth in services, particularly in trade, tourism, and construction. Household consumption and investments were key drivers of demand. However, net exports had a negative impact on growth, primarily due to increased imports as inflation eased.
The budget deficit stood at 2.2 percent of GDP, lower than originally planned, but the current account deficit widened significantly to 4.3 billion euros in 2024, up from 1.1 billion euros in 2023. This increase in the current account deficit was offset by a record 5.1 billion euros in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows.
Inflation, which peaked at 16.2 percent in March 2023, decreased to 4.3 percent by December 2024, although it remains relatively high compared to regional figures. In response, the central bank reduced its policy rate from 6.5 percent at the start of 2024 to 5.75 percent as of February 2025.
Looking ahead, global geopolitical uncertainties and potential trade tariff issues present risks to Serbia’s exports and FDI inflows. However, significant capital investments related to Expo 2027 could provide a boost to economic growth. Additional risks include a tightening labor market and a possible slowdown in structural reforms amid ongoing political challenges.
