BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 17. Global oil demand is expected to maintain steady growth over the next two years, with an annual increase of 1.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) forecast for both 2025 and 2026, according to OPEC’s latest monthly outlook, Trend reports.
The projection remains unchanged from the previous month, signaling continued confidence in market fundamentals despite regional adjustments.
For 2025, demand growth will be led largely by non-OECD countries, contributing around 1.2 mb/d year-on-year (y-o-y). China, India, and Other Asia are expected to be the primary sources of this expansion. Within the OECD, a more modest increase of 138,000 barrels per day is projected, driven entirely by the Americas, while demand in Europe is expected to remain flat and Asia Pacific may see a slight decline.
OPEC notes that weaker-than-expected demand data from the OECD and parts of Asia in the first quarter of 2025 were offset by stronger consumption in Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. Forecasts for the second quarter saw upward revisions in the OECD Americas, the Middle East, and Africa, though these were balanced by downward adjustments in China and India.
Demand growth continues to be dominated by transportation fuels. Jet fuel and kerosene are forecast to increase by 407,000 b/d in 2025, reflecting strong air travel recovery. Gasoline demand is projected to grow by 378,000 b/d, while diesel—including transportation diesel—is expected to rise by 94,000 b/d.
Petrochemical feedstocks are also set to play a critical role. Liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) and natural gas liquids (NGLs) are forecast to grow by 290,000 b/d, while naphtha demand is expected to rise by 182,000 b/d, supported by new petrochemical capacity, particularly in China and the Middle East.
Looking ahead to 2026, OPEC sees a similar growth pattern, with global oil demand again expected to rise by 1.3 mb/d. Non-OECD countries will continue to lead, contributing 1.2 mb/d to the total increase, with Other Asia, India, and China remaining key growth engines. OECD demand is projected to grow more moderately, adding around 100,000 b/d, largely from the Americas.
Jet fuel, gasoline, and diesel are expected to remain the top contributors to demand growth in 2026, with jet and gasoline each projected to rise by 370,000 b/d and diesel by 117,000 b/d. Petrochemical demand will stay robust, with a combined increase of 370,000 b/d in NGLs/LPG and naphtha.
