BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 23. New U.S. tariffs will have a limited direct impact on Kazakhstan.
This was announced in the latest outlook published by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
“New US tariffs will have a limited direct impact, as uranium and other commodities, Kazakhstan’s key exports to the United States, are exempt”, the ADB said.
The bank’s analysts noted that consumption growth in Kazakhstan is projected at 5.0% in 2026, slightly above the July baseline, strengthening further in 2027 due to higher public consumption.
Further tightening of consumer lending rules is expected to constrain private consumption.
Investment growth is projected at 8.0% in 2026 before moderating in 2027, supported by state infrastructure projects and financing from Baiterek National Investment Holding and Samruk-Kazyna.
“By mid-2026, Baiterek had provided around $6.2 billion of its planned annual $16.4 billion in lending, while Samruk-Kazyna had planned $10.9 billion in investment expenditure. Net exports of goods and services will decline in both years as imports of intermediate and investment goods continue to grow while exports remain exposed to oil-sector disruptions”, the ADB said.
In the outlook, ADB maintained Kazakhstan’s GDP growth forecast at 4.8% for 2026 and 4.5% for 2027.
“Growth moderated in the first half of 2026, with expansion outside hydrocarbons partly cushioning weaker oil output. Inflation remained in double digits. Public investment and off-budget financing will continue to support growth in 2026 and 2027. Inflation is projected to slow gradually amid utility and fuel price adjustments and external pressures”, ADB said.
The United States introduced new tariffs of 10% and 12.5% on imports from 60 countries worldwide on July 24, 2026.
