BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 8. U.S. refinery capacity is expected to decline in 2026 due to planned shutdowns at two major facilities, according to the latest outlook from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), Trend reports.
Phillips 66 plans to close its 139,000-barrel-per-day (b/d) Wilmington refinery in the Los Angeles area later this year, while Valero is set to shut its 145,000 b/d Benicia refinery in early 2026. The closures will reduce overall refining capacity, leading to a decline in crude oil inputs.
However, the EIA expects the drop in refinery throughput to be smaller than the reduction in capacity. Strong refining margins, supported by low product inventories, are likely to keep the remaining refineries running at higher utilization rates. The agency forecasts refinery utilization to average 91.4% in 2026, up from 91.1% in 2025 and the highest level since 2022.
The agency noted that the forecast was completed before a fire at Chevron’s 285,000 b/d El Segundo refinery near Los Angeles disrupted product flows.
With less domestic refining capacity, the United States is expected to import less crude oil but increase imports of refined petroleum products in 2026. As refinery inputs decline more than crude oil production, inventories are expected to build up, reducing net crude imports to below 1.9 million b/d in 2026 - the lowest annual level since 1971, compared with 2.1 million b/d this year.
