BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 8. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its global renewable energy growth forecast for 2025–2030 by 5% compared to last year, reflecting recent policy, regulatory, and market developments, Trend reports.
The updated outlook projects 248 GW less renewable capacity to be commissioned over the period.
According to the IEA, the downward revision mainly affects solar PV, wind, and bioenergy projects. Solar PV accounts for more than 70% of the total reduction, driven largely by slower utility-scale deployment, while offshore wind shows the sharpest relative decline, with growth expectations cut by 27%.
Despite the downgrade, renewable expansion remains robust. The IEA’s main scenario foresees global annual renewable capacity additions rising from 683 GW in 2024 to nearly 890 GW by 2030, with solar and wind making up 96% of total growth. These technologies remain the most cost-effective options for new power generation worldwide, supported by policies in more than 130 countries.
The agency notes that recent policy adjustments will shape annual installation trends across key markets. Following record growth in 2025, annual additions are expected to slow in 2026, mainly due to transitional policy phases in China and the U.S.
In China, developers are expected to pause after a surge to meet earlier policy deadlines, as new auction mechanisms and contract-for-difference schemes take effect. In the U.S., project developers are racing to complete solar and wind installations before the end of 2027 to qualify for tax incentives under the latest framework. This is likely to cause a dip in 2026 activity before a partial rebound in later years.
By 2027, the IEA expects China’s renewable sector to regain momentum, driving a renewed global upswing in solar and wind capacity through the end of the decade.
