BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Global refinery activity is approaching seasonal lows in October, with throughput expected at 81.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), the International Energy Agency (IEA) said, Trend reports.
This comes just three months after July’s record high of 85.4 mb/d, highlighting the impact of peak maintenance and reduced Russian crude processing.
Despite the slowdown, refining fundamentals remain supportive. Tight product markets and rising crude supplies have boosted margins, while diesel values in Europe and the Atlantic Basin remain strong amid reduced Russian exports. The IEA noted that countries reliant on Russian diesel, such as Brazil, are turning to US supplies, intensifying competition with European buyers.
Global crude throughput forecasts remain largely unchanged at 83.5 mb/d in 2025 and 84 mb/d in 2026, though Russian processing is expected to remain below 5 mb/d through mid-2026 due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on infrastructure. Growth in annual crude throughputs is projected to slow to 460,000 b/d in 2026, down from 600,000 b/d this year.
The IEA highlighted stronger European and Middle East runs, offsetting some of the losses from Russia, and expects the favorable margin environment to support additional crude processing despite seasonal maintenance.
