Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan. 30
By Elena Kosolapova - Trend:
Low oil prices on the world market will not have a significant impact on the volumes of production in Kazakhstan, said a senior researcher of the Institute of Economics at the Ministry of Education and Science of Kazakhstan Oleg Yegorov.
"Companies that produced oil, will continue to produce it because no growth is predicted (in other sectors of the economy)," Yegorov told Trend by phone Jan.30. "Kazakh oil companies that develop both large and medium-sized deposits will continue to work as usual."
At the same time, he did not rule out that at some fields, the cost of production of which is particularly high if developer companies could preserve their capacities.
Also, it is possible that after some time, some oil companies will experience losses, according to the expert.
Yegorov said that oil prices falling very sharply below the critical level is not for the first time. There was a time when oil prices almost reached the bottom - $10 per barrel, $16 per barrel, they were recently at $25 a barrel.
"And all the companies worked, because even in these conditions, sales of oil brings a certain profit," he said. "In such cases, the process of waiting is on. This period of declining prices cannot last forever. And the conjecture of the market, which today is unfavorable, because supply exceeds demand, cannot last forever."
Low oil prices can trigger positive changes as well - it is a chance to load the Kazakh refineries with the national oil, according to the expert.
Egorov said it is possible that the oil prices will increase by the summer, or maybe even earlier.
"It is hard to believe that the prices for this resource can be at such a low level, since anyway, oil is demanded by all," he said.
A number of events can lead to a change in oil prices, according to Egorov. For instance, China, which is one of the main consumers of crude oil, is likely to increase its purchases soon.
"China has reduced the purchase of this resource in the last two years, "he said, adding that however, it is a temporary situation, since China has created several large oil refining facilities in the last five years and these facilities can't operate without crude oil.
The expert said therefore, it is possible that China will increase the purchase in the first or second quarter of 2015 and subsequently, the market's structure will change.
Moreover, Egorov said it is not known which policy the new king of Saudi Arabia will pursue. If he pursues the same policy, the production volume in OPEC countries will not change. If the king's policy aims to reduce the production volume of OPEC countries, the prices will go up.
Earlier, Kazakhstan's Deputy Energy Minister Uzakbai Karabalin said that the prime cost of oil production in the country is high enough and on average, nears $50 per barrel.
World oil prices have dropped from almost $110 per barrel to below $50 in recent months and the prices continue declining. The revenues from oil sale are the main income source of Kazakhstan.
Edited by CN
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