BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 11. The international financial group ING Group forecasts acceleration of Azerbaijan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to 3% in 2027 and 2.5% in 2028.
According to ING Group's updated economic forecasts released on November 10, Azerbaijan's GDP growth is expected to be 1.5% in 2026.
ING Group's quarterly projections also point to a growth in Azerbaijan's economic activity in 2027. Specifically, GDP growth is forecast at 2.8% for Q3 2026 and 1.7% for Q4 2026.
For 2027, economic growth is expected to reach 3% in Q1, 3.5% in Q2, 2% in Q3, and 3.5% in Q4.
According to the draft 2027 budget package, Azerbaijan's average annual real GDP growth is projected at 3.3% in 2027–2030, while non-oil-gas GDP is expected to grow by 4.4%. The non-oil-gas sector is expected to be the main driver of economic growth during this period.
According to the document, the macroeconomic forecasts take into account the country's economic development trends, the potential impact of global economic processes on Azerbaijan's economy, existing sectoral strategic documents, medium-term development targets, reforms, and budget policy parameters.
The main framework for the next strategic period will be defined by the "Socio-Economic Development Strategy for 2027–2030" and the "Second State Program on the Great Return."
According to draft forecasts, Azerbaijan’s nominal GDP is projected to reach 141 billion manat ($82.9 billion) in 2027, up from 126.5 billion manat ($74.4 billion) in 2024, 129.1 billion manat ($75.9 billion) in 2025, and estimated 138 billion manat ($81.2 billion) in 2026.
Real GDP growth is projected at 2.7% in 2027. Average annual real growth is expected to reach 3.3% in 2027–2030.
The role of the non-oil-gas sector in the economy is also expected to strengthen further during this period. Non-oil-gas GDP is projected to reach 109.1 billion manat ($64.2 billion) in 2027, with a real growth rate of 4.4%. The sector's average annual real growth in 2027–2030 is also forecast at 4.4%.
For comparison, non-oil-gas GDP stood at 86.2 billion manat ($50.7 billion) in 2024 and 92.3 billion manat ($54.3 billion) in 2025, and is projected to reach 100 billion manat ($58.8 billion) in 2026.
