BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 10. Kazakhstan's electricity consumption is projected to increase by an average of 0.9% annually through 2050, reaching 159 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh), according to the baseline forecast of S&P Global Energy presented in the National Energy Report prepared by the Kazenergy Association in cooperation with S&P Global.
According to the report, the projected growth rate is significantly slower than the pace recorded in recent years.
Thermal power generation is expected to retain its dominant position in Kazakhstan's electricity mix, accounting for 62% of total output by 2050. Meanwhile, the share of renewable energy sources (RES), including hydropower, is projected to increase to 28%.
According to the forecast, Kazakhstan's total installed generation capacity is expected to reach 33.4 gigawatts (GW) in 2030 and 45 GW in 2050.
However, the report notes that only projects at the most advanced stages of development or those considered particularly important are realistically expected to be commissioned between 2026 and 2030, with a combined capacity of around 6.6 GW, given the various implementation challenges.
The report also assesses the impact of competitive mechanisms on the development of Kazakhstan's power sector.
"The introduction of competitive mechanisms (auctions and tenders) for selecting new power plant construction projects in Kazakhstan has helped reduce electricity and capacity costs through competition among investors," the report says.
At the same time, some projects are planned outside competitive procedures under intergovernmental agreements that have the force of law and provide for fixed tariff parameters, including foreign currency indexation.
The report notes that direct investment agreements can accelerate investment attraction and the commissioning of new generation capacity. However, the absence of competitive selection creates risks of less transparent pricing and higher costs for new capacity, while also weakening competition across the market.
