Baku, Azerbaijan, Dec.1
By Taleh Mursagulov - Trend:
The current dynamics of decline in oil prices may not last long, Zhannur Ashigali, associate director of Russia’s Analytical Credit Rating Agency (ACRA), told Trend.
"It is extremely likely that as part of the G20 forum, China and the US will be able to come to an agreement on mutual trade, and within the OPEC+, it is quite likely that the parties will agree to some reduction or freezing crude output," he said.
He added that in this case, the price of Brent crude oil may rise to $70 per barrel, and the most pessimistic scenario implies a decrease to $40 per barrel.
He noted that the current ACRA forecast for oil prices for 2019 includes slow decrease in oil prices from $70 per barrel at the beginning of the year to $65 per barrel at the end of the year.
"Among the most important drivers [in the oil market], it is possible to single out the dynamics of the global economy growth, which depends on further decisions on foreign trade between Washington and Beijing, as well as on the willingness to freeze oil production growth in a number of countries, for example, in Russia, the US and Iraq," he said.
Oil prices switched to a sharp decline after a four-year record in the beginning of October this year - $86.7 per barrel.
The main concerns in the oil market are related to the risk of an oversupply amid increasing crude reserves and signs of a slowdown in the global economy, which negatively affects demand.
Thus, in the US, oil reserves rose for the tenth week in a row, while the oil production reached a record 11.7 million barrels per day.
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