BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 30. Oil's share in road transport fuel demand is expected to drop to an average 80 percent by 2030, Trend reports.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), as indicated in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), oil's share in road transport energy demand declines from 92 percent to 88 percent, to 84 percent - in the Announced Pledges Scenario (APS), and to 78 percent - in the Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario (NZE).
This will be driven by a shift towards electromobility and increased use of biofuels, the agency noted.
At the same time, electricity demand for road transport skyrockets, increasing by more than 12-fold in the STEPS and over 15-fold in the APS by 2030, the IEA added. With the support of phase-out dates for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and electromobility incentives, EVs account for nearly 20 percent of total road vehicle-kilometers in the APS in 2030. Despite this, their energy efficiency, being three to four times higher than ICE vehicles, results in them constituting only 5 percent of road transport energy demand.
Meanwhile, according to the report, in 2022, transport energy demand increased by 4 percent, moving closer to pre-COVID-19 levels. Notably, oil contributed to 90 percent of this growth, primarily driven by a 20-percent year-on-year surge in the aviation sector, which remains 25 percent below its 2019 levels.
Road transport saw a nearly 60-percent rise in electricity demand, and electric cars captured a 14-percent market share among new registrations.
Looking ahead to 2030, various scenarios indicate significant changes: the global car fleet expands by 15 percent, buses increase similarly, two/three-wheelers grow by over 20 percent, and trucks by more than 10 percent, the IEA added.
Aviation activity doubles, rail passenger-kilometers rise by 36 percent, and shipping ton-kilometers increase by nearly 20 percent. However, the APS scenario reveals a shift away from private transportation, resulting in higher rail passenger-kilometers compared to STEPS by 2030. In the NZE Scenario, stronger emission reduction measures lead to a 20-percent reduction in aviation activity and a 15-percent decrease in the car stock by 2050.
