BAKU, Azerbaijan, July 27. The loan growth rate in Kazakhstan is more likely to decelerate to 15 percent in 2023 and 10 percent in 2024, down from 23.3 percent in 2022, a source at Fitch Solutions Group told Trend.
"Latest data from the National Bank of Kazakhstan (NBK) show that client (households and non-financial corporates) borrowing moderated to 20 percent year-over-year (y-o-y) in March, from 30 percent y-o-y recorded during the same month of 2022," said the source.
According to Fitch Solutions, the slowdown mainly comes down to base effects but also reflects the effects of the NBK's aggressive rate-hiking cycle. During the past year, authorities in Astana increased the country's benchmark base rate by a total of 700 basis points (bps), reaching 16.75 percent.
"As these rate hikes gradually affect the commercial banking sector, lending activity is expected to decelerate in the upcoming quarters. We thus maintain our forecast for credit growth to slow to 15.0 percent in 2023 and 10.0 percent in 2024, down from 23.3 percent in 2022," said the analytical center.
On July 5, the NBK decided to keep the base rate unchanged at the level of 16.75 percent per annum with a corridor of +/- 1 percentage point.
