Baku, Azerbaijan, Feb. 28
By Emil Ilgar – Trend:
Iran’s nominal GDP would increase from the current $377 billion to 472 billion in five years, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has estimated.
According to a report, published on IMF’s official website Feb.28, Iran’s nominal GDP at market prices is also expected to increase from 13,045 trillion Iranian rials in the current fiscal year (started on March 21) to about 25,639 trillion by 2022.
Iran’s nominal GDP at market prices (trillions of Iranian rials)
The report says that Iran’s economic growth rebounded over the course of 2016/17 (current fiscal year) on the back of higher oil production.
“Real GDP grew by 7.4 percent in the first half 2016/17, rebounding from recession in 2015/16. However, growth in the non-oil sector averaged 0.9 percent, despite the pick-up registered in the second quarter, reflecting continued difficulties in access to finance and domestic financial sector and structural weaknesses”.
Nominal GDP (billions of US$)
IMF says that economic growth is projected to stabilize at 4.5 percent over the medium-term as the recovery broadens.
“Real GDP growth is expected to reach 6.6 percent in 2016/17 and to ease to 3.3 percent in 2017/18 as oil production remains at the OPEC target”.
Thereafter, higher foreign direct investment (FDI) and a gradual improvement in domestic financial conditions drive investment and stronger non-oil sector growth, IMF said, adding that the current account is forecast to remain in surplus as higher exports offset the pick-up in imports related to investment.
|
GDP growth |
2014/15 |
2015/16 |
2016/17 |
2017/18 |
2018/19 |
2019/20 |
2020/21 |
2021/22 |
|
Real GDP at factor cost (%) |
4.0 |
-1.8 |
6.6 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
4.4 |
4.5 |
4.4 |
|
Real oil GDP (%) |
7.3 |
6.4 |
5.2 |
2.6 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
6.7 |
5.8 |
|
Real non-oil GDP (%) |
3.7 |
-2.7 |
0.8 |
3.4 |
3.8 |
4.0 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
