BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 16. Brent crude oil spot price is expected to average $93/b in the fourth quarter of 2023.
As per data obtained by Trend from the US Energy Information Administration Agency (EIA), a decline in prices is anticipated starting 2024 as oil inventories begin to accumulate, with an average price of $88/b for the following year.
In August, the average Brent spot price stood at $86/b, marking an $11/b increase compared to June. The surge in oil prices during August can be attributed primarily to Saudi Arabia's decision to extend voluntary cuts in crude oil production through September. Additionally, US commercial crude oil inventories reached their lowest point by the end of August, a situation not seen since December 2022.
The EIA also expected a decrease in global oil stockpiles during this period, as Saudi Arabia's announcement on September 5 to prolong its voluntary output reduction of 1 mb/d until 2023-end. This will exert upward pressure on oil prices in the months ahead, the agency says.
The inventory build-up in the upcoming year primarily stems from a slowdown in oil demand growth, an increase in non-OPEC oil production, and the conclusion of Saudi Arabia's voluntary production cuts, the EIA added.
