BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 19. The Oxford Institute of Energy Studies (OIES) has revised Brent crude price forecasts downward for 2025 and 2026, citing growing US trade policy uncertainty, global tariff concerns, and weaker economic growth prospects, Trend reports.
Brent crude is now expected to average $74.4 per barrel in 2025, down $2.4 per barrel from last month’s estimate of $76.8/b. The 2026 forecast has been reduced by $2/b to $72.1/b, from the previous projection of $74.1/b.
Brent crude averaged $75.2/b in February, marking a $4/b decline month-on-month (m/m). The downward trend continued in the first half of March, with Brent averaging $70.2/b, reflecting a weaker market sentiment driven by global economic concerns.
A key factor behind the price decline is the negative impact of trade policy uncertainty on global demand expectations. Model-based estimates suggest that market pessimism in early March pushed Brent prices down by approximately $7.2/b, relative to a fundamentals-based price level in the mid-$70s.
Despite the bearish sentiment, the market remains in backwardation, and global crude inventories are at historically low levels. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported a significant stock draw of 40.5 million barrels (mbbls) in January, including 26.1 mbbls of refined products, further tightening supply.
Additionally, geopolitical risks, OPEC+ production flexibility, and multi-year low global oil inventories continue to support a price floor of around $70/b.
The updated outlook reflects continued downside risks for oil prices:
- H1 2025 Brent forecast has been lowered by $0.8/b to
$73.9/b.
- H2 2025 forecast has been cut by $4.0/b to $74.8/b, compared to
last month’s projection of $78.8/b.
While oil prices face strong downward pressure from economic uncertainty, tight supply fundamentals and geopolitical risks are expected to prevent Brent from falling below $70/b in the near term. The balance between macroeconomic headwinds and supply-side constraints will be key in determining the trajectory of oil prices through 2025 and 2026.
