BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 26. Fitch Ratings has affirmed the Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of Kazakhstan-based JSC Samruk-Energy at 'BB+', with a Stable Outlook, the agency said on September 25.
Fitch said the rating is based on Kazakhstan's 'BBB' rating with a Stable Outlook, using a 'top-down minus two' approach under its Government-Related Entities (GRE) Rating Criteria. The agency also revised Samruk-Energy's Standalone Credit Profile (SCP) to 'bb-' from 'b+'.
“Samruk-Energy's revised SCP reflects our expectation of a stronger business profile following the anticipated completion of Almaty gasification projects in 2027 and our revised expectation of faster deleveraging after its capex peak in 2026, with funds from operations (FFO) net leverage at or below 3.5x from 2027,” Fitch said.
Fitch said the company has a 'Very Likely' expectation of government support, noting that the state owns 100% of Samruk-Energy and has strong influence over its strategy and operations.
The agency expects Samruk-Energy's FFO net leverage to rise temporarily to 5.1x in 2026 as capital expenditure peaks, before falling to 3.5x or below in 2027-2030. Fitch also expects free cash flow to turn positive from 2028.
Samruk-Energy plans capital expenditure of about KZT1.4 trillion ($3 billion) in 2026-2030. Fitch forecasts average annual capex to decline to KZT160 billion in 2028-2030 from KZT413 billion in 2025-2027 following completion of the Almaty gasification projects in 2027.
The agency expects the new units at Almaty CHP-2 and Almaty CHP-3 to be commissioned in 1Q27 and 4Q27, respectively. Fitch forecasts capacity payments from the Almaty projects to account for about 40% of total EBITDA on average in 2028-2030.
Fitch also noted that Samruk-Energy accounts for about a third of electricity production in Kazakhstan and is involved in several strategic projects.
In September 2026, the regulator approved a 15% tariff increase for Ekibastuz GRES-1 and a 24% increase for Almaty Power Stations, according to Fitch.
The ratings have been withdrawn for commercial reasons, and Fitch said it will no longer provide rating or analytical coverage of Samruk-Energy.
