BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 13
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand will average 92.6 million b/d in 2020, a decrease of 8.1 million b/d from last year, before increasing by 7.0 million b/d in 2021, Trend reports citing EIA’s May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).
EIA estimates global petroleum and liquid fuels consumption averaged 94.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in the first quarter of 2020, a decline of 5.8 million b/d from the same period in 2019.
Lower global oil demand growth for 2020 in the May STEO reflects growing evidence of disruptions to global economic activity along with reduced expected travel globally as a result of restrictions related to COVID-19.
EIA has lowered its forecasts for global oil demand in 2020. The precise effect of lockdowns on petroleum consumption remains highly uncertain because the severity and enforcement of the shutdowns vary by country. EIA currently assumes all stay-at home orders will be eased by the fourth quarter of 2020. EIA is not assuming resurgent outbreaks of COVID-19 that result in the announcement of further lockdowns.
EIA forecasts global liquid fuels consumption will average 92.6 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2020, down 8.1 million b/d from 2019. Following the pattern of the GDP forecast, the sharpest consumption declines are in the second quarter, when EIA forecasts a year-over-year decline in liquid fuels consumption of 18.8 million b/d.
EIA forecasts both economic growth and global liquid fuels consumption to increase in 2021. However, any lasting changes to transportation and other oil consumption patterns once COVID-19 mitigation efforts end present considerable uncertainty to the increase in liquid fuels consumption, even if GDP growth increases significantly.
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