BAKU, Azerbaijan, March 11
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Shipping industry is likely to have a multi-fuel mix, Trend reports with reference to the International Gas Union (IGU).
DNV GL sees carbon-neutral fuels occupying a 39 percent share of the shipping energy mix by 2050, leaving LNG with only 23 percent. In its Maritime Forecast to 2050, published last September, the Norwegian classification society also predicts that HFO and marine gasoil will still command a share of 33 percent in three decades’ time. It also sees hydrogen falling out of favour, with ammonia and methanol coming to dominate the market by 2050.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) likewise sees ammonia playing a much greater role than hydrogen through to 2070. DNV-GL still expects to see a significant ramp up in LNG use in shipping in the years to come until environmental regulations are tightened further in the 2030s and 2040s. And the organization concedes that it is difficult to identify clear winners among the many fuel options that shipowners face.
DNV GL warns that “picking the wrong solution can lead to a significant competitive disadvantage. Planning for fuel flexibility could ease the transition and minimise the risk of investing in stranded assets.”
Shell notes that “a number of contenders may serve deep-sea shipping in the future and will take considerable development in the meantime.” This uncertainty makes it harder for shipowners to take decisions on new investments. But a wait-and-see approach is “a high risk option,” SEA LNG says.
“Waiting means that shipping will continue to contribute more GHG than it would if it were using LNG today,” the association argues. “It is clear that global availability of these untested and developing alternative fuels is more than a decade away and are not therefore viable for 2030 compliance.” At the least, then, shipowners can address their emissions now by adopting LNG as a transition fuel. But investing in LNG propulsion now can also pave the way for further CO2 reductions in the future, by replacing standard LNG with bio- or synthetic LNG, without having to upgrade their vessels.
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