BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 27. Tajikistan’s exports increased by 57.2 percent year on year in the first half of 2026, driven by rising shipments of precious metals and minerals, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) said in its September Regional Economic Prospects report.
At the same time, imports increased by 38.6% year on year, resulting in a widening trade deficit.
The EBRD said the increase in exports reflected higher shipments of precious metals and minerals, while the expansion of imports came amid continued economic activity and domestic demand.
The bank projects Tajikistan’s economic growth at 7.9% in 2026 and 7% in 2027.
Trend’s analysis indicates that the Tajikistan’s exports could maintain annual growth of around 10–15% in 2027–2029, supported by mineral production, precious metals and the gradual expansion of industrial output. If this pace is maintained, the country’s total exports could increase by approximately 35–45% by 2029 compared with 2026.
Further growth in processing industries and mineral production could also gradually diversify the export structure, creating additional opportunities for Tajikistan to expand its presence in regional markets.
Tajikistan has continued to expand industrial production and investment in sectors with export potential, including mining, metals, energy and manufacturing. Higher production capacity in these areas could support further growth in the country’s external trade and strengthen the contribution of industrial products to overall exports.
The development of processing facilities could also allow Tajikistan to increase the value added generated from its natural resources, while improvements in transport and regional connectivity may facilitate access to neighboring markets.
