BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 6. Global renewable energy capacity is projected to increase by nearly 4,800 gigawatts (GW) between 2026 and 2031, which is 57% higher than the figure for the previous six-year period.
This was stated in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) report, *Renewables 2026*.
According to the forecast, for the first time, the growth in renewable energy capacity in developing countries and emerging market economies, excluding China, will match that of developed economies.
IEA analysts estimate that during the period under review, India will become the second-largest market in terms of renewable energy capacity growth after China.
“At the same time, the increase in renewable energy capacity in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa will nearly triple compared to the previous six-year period,” the report notes.
The IEA has revised its forecast for renewable energy capacity growth in developing countries and emerging market economies, excluding China, upward by nearly 20% compared to the report published a year earlier.
“Among the factors behind this revision, the agency highlights new energy targets, energy security concerns, government support measures, and the increasing competitiveness of wind and solar power,” the report states.
"Against a backdrop of high fuel prices and power outages, households and small businesses are increasingly turning to affordable solar photovoltaic systems to improve the reliability of their energy supply and reduce costs.
Since 2022, additional rooftop solar capacity has helped improve access to electricity and enhance the quality of the power supply for at least 70 million households.
Moreover, the capacity of off-grid solar photovoltaic systems is expected to increase 2.5-fold by 2031, reaching approximately 80 GW. The main growth markets will be Pakistan, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia," the IEA notes.
Furthermore, against the backdrop of rising oil prices and concerns about energy security stemming from the crisis in the Middle East, the IEA has raised its forecast for growth in liquid biofuel production by 40% compared to its previous report.
"As an immediate response to rising prices and fuel availability issues, several countries, primarily in Southeast Asia and Latin America, are accelerating the implementation of new and previously announced requirements for the use of liquid biofuels to reduce dependence on fossil fuel imports.
Biofuel consumption in Southeast Asia in 2026 will increase by 11% compared to 2025, while the global average growth rate will be 7%.
Overall, global demand for liquid biofuels is expected to grow by nearly 30% by 2031. To ensure a real reduction in emissions without negatively impacting land, water, and biological resources, it is necessary to adhere to strict sustainability criteria, including transparent and verifiable accounting of greenhouse gas emissions, as well as requirements for land use and raw materials," the agency reports.
