BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct.7
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels averaged 95.3 million b/d in September, Trend reports with reference to the US Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) in October Short-term Energy Outlook (STEO).
Liquid fuels consumption was down 6.4 million b/d from September 2019, but it was up from an average of 85.1 million b/d during the second quarter of 2020 and 93.9 million b/d in August, according to EIA.
EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 92.8 million b/d for all of 2020, down by 8.6 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 6.3 million b/d in 2021. EIA’s forecast for consumption growth in 2021 is 0.3 million b/d less than in the September STEO.
EIA expects inventory U.S. Energy Information Administration draws in the fourth quarter to be 3.0 million b/d before markets become more balanced, with inventory draws of 0.3 million b/d on average in 2021.
Despite expected inventory draws in the coming months, EIA expects high inventory levels and surplus crude oil production capacity will limit upward pressure on oil prices. EIA forecasts monthly Brent spot prices will average $42/b during the fourth quarter of 2020 and will rise to an average of $47/b in 2021.
This is while looking into 4Q20, the US JP Morgan Bank still sees global oil consumption recovering another 2.5 mbd—on holiday travel and continued strength from the industrial and petrochemical sectors—to average 94.1 mbd in 4Q20.
Offsetting some of that 2.5 mbd qoq growth in demand is the surprising return of Libyan crude exports and production, with the exports potentially bringing about 12 million barrels to the regional markets over the next few weeks, and production adding another 500-600 kbd by yearend.
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