BAKU, Azerbaijan, June 9
By Leman Zeynalova - Trend:
In the coming months, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that global oil production will increase to match rising levels of global oil consumption, Trend reports with reference to the EIA.
“The rising oil production in the forecast is largely a result of the OPEC+ decision to raise production. We expect rising production will end the persistent global oil inventory draws that have occurred for much of the past year and lead to relatively balanced global oil markets in the second half of 2021 (2H21). We expect Brent prices will remain near current levels in 3Q21, averaging $68/b. However, in 2022, we expect that continuing growth in production from OPEC+ and accelerating growth in U.S. tight oil production—along with other supply growth—will outpace decelerating growth in global oil consumption and contribute to declining oil prices. Based on these factors, we expect Brent to average $60/b in 2022,” reads the latest report released by the EIA.
The energy administration estimates that 96.2 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in May, an increase of 11.9 million b/d from May 2020 but 3.7 million b/d less than in May 2019.
“We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, which is a 5.4 million b/d increase from 2020. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 3.6 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d
We forecast OPEC crude oil production will average 26.9 million b/d in 2021 and 28.7 million b/d in 2022. OPEC crude oil production in the forecast rises from 25.0 million b/d in April to an average of 28.0 million b/d in 3Q21. Our expectation of rising OPEC production is primarily based on our assumption that OPEC will raise production by about 1 million b/d in both June and in July in response to rising global oil demand and seasonal increases in oil consumption for power generation for some OPEC members. It also reflects an assumption that Iran’s crude oil production will continue to increase this year. Although sanctions that target Iran’s crude oil exports remain in place, crude oil exports—according to ClipperData, LLC.—and production from Iran are up from most of 2020,” the report says.
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