BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. Oil shipments through the strategic Strait of Hormuz are expected to embark on a gradual recovery in 2027, though volumes will fall short of pre-conflict levels, energy consultancy Rystad Energy noted in a report led by Jorge León, the firm's head of geopolitical analysis.
According to Rystad Energy’s base-case scenario, a limited agreement could be reached between the U.S. and Iran by the end of the first half of 2027. However, the core points of contention between the two sides would remain unresolved.
The company emphasized that a growth in oil shipments through the Strait doesn’t signify a normalization of the situation.
"Despite the resumption of shipping, the number of attacks on commercial vessels has risen significantly, and the cost of maritime transport has surged," the company remarked.
In September, Rystad Energy projected a prolonged standoff followed by a gradual improvement. At that time, analysts expected oil exports to begin recovering in early 2027 and to return to normal levels within the course of that year.
The forecast has now been revised: while a gradual recovery in shipments is expected, a full return to pre-war figures isn’t anticipated.
"Total crude oil exports from Persian Gulf nations averaged nearly 12 million barrels per day in September and the first 20 days of October. While this is well above the lows recorded earlier in the conflict, it remains substantially below the pre-war level of approximately 18 million barrels per day," the report said.
Meanwhile, the security situation for shipping has deteriorated. According to Rystad Energy, the number of incidents involving disruptions to vessel traffic reached 10 in a single week, subsequently rising to 16—13 of which occurred within the Strait of Hormuz itself. Over the following week, another 11 such incidents were recorded, including eight within the strait itself.
Rystad Energy also noted that the positions of the U.S. and Iran remain fundamentally at odds, with limited diplomatic progress. The risk of renewed military escalation persists, including in the period following the U.S. midterm elections, which are set to take place in early November.
"Achieving a comprehensive settlement would require addressing issues related to Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions, Tehran-backed armed groups in the region, and the security of maritime shipping, while also taking into account Israel’s security interests. We consider it unlikely that all these points of contention can be resolved within the coming year," the report pointed out.
The analysts also focused on OPEC+ policy. The alliance’s decision to maintain oil production at current levels in December was expected. Of greater significance will be the OPEC+ ministerial meeting scheduled for November 29, where participants will determine production policy parameters for 2027.
"In reaching their decision, the alliance members will have to weigh the uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-Iran conflict, the pace at which supplies through the Strait of Hormuz are restored, and the potential for a supply surplus once previously removed oil volumes return to the market," the report noted.
OPEC+ previously decided to increase oil production by 188,000 barrels per day in September, before opting to keep production levels unchanged for December.
