BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. The share of fossil fuels in global energy consumption is projected to decline from 86.7% in 2026 to 82.7% by 2035, according to a report by BMI, a division of Fitch Solutions.
The forecast was published in an analytical review evaluating global energy transition trends ahead of the upcoming 31st UN Climate Change Conference (COP31).
According to BMI's forecast, global consumption of fossil fuels will continue to grow through 2035, despite increased electricity use and declining demand for oil, gas, and coal in several major energy-importing regions.
The consumption will reach 586.1 exajoules (EJ) in 2035, up 3.8% from 2026.
"Declining fossil fuel consumption in Western Europe, China, and Japan won’t offset its growth in emerging markets and energy-exporting countries.
By 2035, combined fossil fuel consumption in Western Europe, China, and Japan will decline by 21.3 exajoules compared to 2026. Meanwhile, this figure will increase by 35.1 exajoules in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), India, Indonesia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Energy security has become one of the central themes in preparations for COP31 amid the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent conflicts with Iran. In particular, countries dependent on energy imports view electrification as one way to reduce their reliance on foreign fuel supplies.
The COP31 Presidency has put forward a voluntary target of increasing the share of electricity in final energy consumption to 35% by 2035. The initiative, known as the 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge, was presented in New York on September 21," the review said.
However, according to BMI's forecast, the global electrification rate will reach only 27.9% by 2035. Only the Asia-Pacific region and Western Europe are expected to come close to the target.
The company noted that countries' national climate plans don’t yet meet the requirements for achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, while the commitments submitted fall significantly short of the necessary targets.
BMI forecasted that global emissions from the energy sector will continue to increase through 2032. Emissions growth in India, Indonesia, and the Gulf countries is expected to offset reductions in Europe and China.
The review also notes that COP31 will take place from November 9 through November 20, 2026, in Antalya, Türkiye. Under an agreement reached at COP30 in Belem in November 2025, Türkiye will host the conference and lead the action agenda, while Australia will oversee the negotiation process.
"Among the key issues for the upcoming negotiations, BMI highlights the just transition mechanism agreed upon in Belem, financing for climate change adaptation measures, and closing the gap between national commitments and the goals of the Paris Agreement.
The U.S.' withdrawal from the Paris Agreement reduces the likelihood of adopting new binding international climate commitments, so COP31 is likely to focus primarily on voluntary initiatives.
The average price of Brent crude since the beginning of 2026 has stood at around $95 per barrel, compared to $69 per barrel in 2025," the BMI review added.
