BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. Natural gas production in Eurasia in 2026 may increase by approximately 1.5% compared to the previous year, primarily due to growth in production in Russia.
This is stated in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) “Global Gas Security Review 2026.” However, production volumes in the region will remain 10% below 2021 levels.
According to preliminary IEA data, natural gas production in Eurasia rose by 1.5% year-over-year in the period from January through September 2026. Following a 3% decline in 2025, production in the region began to recover amid rising domestic demand and LNG exports.
“In Russia, which accounts for the bulk of the regional growth, gas production in the first nine months of 2026 increased by more than 3%, or 16 billion cubic meters. In 2025, by contrast, production fell by 3%, or 25 billion cubic meters, due to weaker domestic demand and a decline in exports.
The recovery in production in Russia was driven primarily by an increase in supplies to the domestic market. A colder winter in the first quarter supported higher gas consumption in the residential and commercial sectors.
From January through September, Russian pipeline gas exports to the European Union rose by 1.5%, or more than 200 million cubic meters, on a year-over-year basis. At the same time, shipments to Türkiye during the first eight months of the year fell by 17%, or 2.4 billion cubic meters.
Russian gas exports to China via the “Power of Siberia” pipeline, according to available estimates, increased slightly compared to last year’s level. In addition, Russia continues to increase pipeline supplies to Central Asia. “According to a statement by Gazprom in early September, gas supplies to markets in the region grew by 70% compared to 2025,” the report states.
Furthermore, it is noted that Russian LNG exports in January–September 2026 increased by 7%, or more than 2 billion cubic meters.
“At the same time, Russian gas supplies to the EU are subject to restrictions under the REPowerEU regulation. Short-term purchases of Russian LNG and pipeline gas have been banned since April 25 and June 17, respectively. Despite an increase in Russian LNG supplies to the EU in May and June, they fell by 30% or 1 billion cubic meters year-over-year in the third quarter of 2026.
Imports of Russian LNG under long-term contracts will be banned starting January 1, 2027, and a complete phase-out of pipeline supplies of Russian gas to the EU is scheduled for the fourth quarter of 2027. According to IEA estimates, this will lead to a reduction in Russian gas exports to the European Union in 2027 by 30 billion cubic meters compared to 2026.
In Central Asian countries, gas production trends in 2026 were mixed. “In Turkmenistan, production increased by 0.4% year-over-year in the first half of the year,” the agency reports.
According to the review, in Uzbekistan, by contrast, production for the period from January through September fell by 16%, or more than 5 billion cubic meters. The IEA attributes this to a decline in production at the country’s existing fields.
In Kazakhstan, commercial gas production during the same period is estimated to have fallen by approximately 9%, or more than 2 billion cubic meters.
According to the IEA, commercial gas production in Azerbaijan fell by 1.5% in the period from January through September 2026, or by more than 500 million cubic meters. During the same period, pipeline gas exports from the country declined by approximately 4% on a year-over-year basis.
Overall, the IEA expects that Russia will remain the main source of gas production growth in Eurasia by the end of 2026. The increase in production will be driven by a recovery in domestic demand and an expansion of LNG exports.
