BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. Global natural gas demand is forecast to decline by around 1.5% in 2026 compared with the previous year, equivalent to nearly 65 billion cubic metres (bcm). This would mark the third annual decline in global gas consumption since 2020.
The forecast is outlined in the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Gas Security Review 2026.
According to the IEA’s preliminary data, global natural gas consumption fell by more than 1%, or over 35 bcm, in January-September 2026 compared with the same period last year. The agency noted that the decline was entirely concentrated in the second and third quarters.
"The decline in demand was driven by lower gas consumption in the Middle East, as well as reduced gas use amid high prices in key LNG-importing markets in Asia and Europe.
In particular, higher gas prices encouraged a switch from gas to coal in the power sectors of several Asian countries. In addition, rising natural gas prices led to lower consumption in energy-intensive industries, including fertiliser production.
The decline in global demand in 2026 will be concentrated primarily in the power generation, energy and industrial sectors, which together will account for 90% of the overall reduction.
The impact of the conflict in the Middle East on gas markets varies significantly across regions. The Middle Eastern countries have been the most directly affected, as damage to local gas production and processing facilities has led to a sharp decline in output across gas-intensive industries.
As a result, natural gas consumption in the Middle East is expected to fall by around 10% in 2026. This would represent an unprecedented decline in regional demand," the report said.
According to the IEA's forecast, natural gas demand in the Asia-Pacific region will decline by 1.5% in 2026.
"Limited LNG availability and high prices will encourage a shift towards coal in power generation, as well as lower operating rates at energy-intensive industrial facilities," the report noted.
"In Europe, natural gas consumption is expected to decline by 3% over the year. This will be driven by lower industrial gas use amid high prices, as well as reduced consumption in the power sector owing to increased electricity generation from renewable sources.
In regions with limited dependence on LNG imports, the impact of the conflict has been relatively modest.
In Africa, natural gas demand is projected to increase by nearly 5% year-on-year in 2026, primarily driven by the power generation and energy sectors.
Gas consumption is also expected to rise in Central and South America. One contributing factor will be lower hydropower generation, which is likely to prompt greater use of natural gas in the power sector.
In North America, natural gas demand is forecast to grow by slightly more than 0.5%. Lower consumption in buildings will be more than offset by increased gas use in the power generation and energy sectors, supported by the region's expanding LNG liquefaction capacity," the agency said.
Meanwhile, natural gas consumption in Eurasia is projected to increase by around 1.5% in 2026, according to the IEA.
"This will be supported by higher gas consumption in buildings due to colder winter weather during the first quarter," the report said.
