BAKU, Azerbaijan, May 24. The global wheat prices are expected to reach a benchmark of 900 cents per bushel by year-end, compared to the previous forecast of 800 cents per bushel, Trend reports via Capital Economics, UK-based research and consulting company.
On the back of the Russia-Ukraine war, many countries have introduced export restrictions. For instance, India’s recent ban on wheat exports “will deal a large blow to global exports” in 2022, the report said.
“Another 11 countries are now restricting wheat exports according to the [International Food Policy Research Institute] IFPRI, which we estimate would have covered around 2.5 percent of global exports in 2020-2021,” the researchers noted.
According to Capital Economics, the demand for export this year will more likely exceed the wheat supplies available. However, the company noted that high wheat prices may encourage planting and boost production in 2022-2023, mainly in developed economies due to the ability to invest in fertilizers.
Thus, Capital Economics expects wheat prices to remain at 1,200 cents per bushel in the second quarter of 2022 and will further decline to 900 cents per bushel by the end of 2022.
“The rise in export restrictions this year has been a worrying trend, and each tightening only serves to limit supplies, push up prices further and increase the likelihood of even more restrictions,” the company concluded.
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