BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 1. The volume of cargo transported along the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) route will increase 3.6-fold by 2040 if countries continue to invest in it, a Senior Transport Economist at the World Bank, Muneeza Alam, said during a World Bank Group online event titled "Middle Corridor: Next Stage," Trend’s correspondent reports.
"In the report on the Middle Corridor, we evaluate several scenarios. The first scenario we consider is what we call the 'status quo' or 'business-as-usual' scenario. In this scenario, we factor in all investments made in the TITR up to and including the end of 2025, that is, all recent investments. We find that cargo volumes along the corridor will increase 2.7-fold between 2023 and 2040, representing a substantial rise in total volume," she said.
According to Alam, non-oil cargo volumes show similar growth, projected to increase 2.4-fold by 2040.
"In our report, we also examine the potential outcomes if countries continue to invest in the corridor—that is, if they do not halt investment at 2025 levels but instead proceed with strategic investments along the route. We refer to this as the TITR infrastructure development scenario, which is a scenario of continued strategic investment.
We find that the corridor’s potential is even greater under this scenario, with significantly higher volume growth. If countries continue to invest in the TITR, transport volumes along the route are projected to increase 3.6-fold by 2040, compared to a 2.4-fold increase otherwise. This represents a substantial rise," she said.
The World Bank representative noted that non-oil volumes are projected to see even greater, 4.5-fold growth.
"Comparing the TITR development scenario with the 'business-as-usual' scenario reveals the cost of inaction. The cost of inaction represents the volumes that would not be realized if countries stopped investing in the Middle Corridor, and this cost is quite high. For total transport volumes, this cost amounts to 33%; in other words, 33% of potential volume would be lost if investment ceased. For non-oil volumes, the cost is even higher - 89%," she said.
