BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 6. Global pumped-storage hydropower (PSH) capacity is expected to increase by 74 gigawatts (GW), according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2026 report.
The report said that the development of PSH stations, geothermal energy systems, and concentrated solar power (CSP) technologies will accelerate globally. The increase in investment in these technologies is driven by the need for electricity storage and the assurance of supply stability, against the backdrop of the rapid expansion of wind and solar energy.
According to the report, the growth in the installed capacity of PSH stations from 2026 to 2031 will be approximately double that of the preceding six-year period. Meanwhile, capacity for geothermal and concentrated solar power is expected to increase roughly threefold from a low baseline.
The report noted that while the development of conventional hydropower has slowed somewhat, due to project delays and limited opportunities for constructing new large-scale plants, PSH has begun to grow rapidly once again.
According to the IEA forecast, global PSH capacity will expand by approximately 74 gigawatts from 2026 to 2031. China is set to account for about two-thirds of this growth; the country is expanding its capacity in this sector to store energy generated by its rapidly growing wind and solar power infrastructure.
"India will rank second in this regard. New projects are also expected to come online in Australia, Vietnam, and Indonesia, as well as in several European and Asian nations," the report emphasized.
The growth in new capacity for concentrated solar power is projected to be driven entirely by China. Specifically, the country’s 15th Five-Year Plan for Renewable Energy Development sets a target of reaching approximately 15 gigawatts of capacity in this sector by 2030.
Meanwhile, the US and Indonesia are expected to lead the growth in geothermal energy capacity. Further development is also anticipated in Japan, Türkiye, Kenya, New Zealand, and the Philippines.
The report also highlights that, while global forecasts for renewable energy remain largely unchanged compared to last year, there are significant variations across different regions.
Specifically, the global growth forecast for renewable electricity capacity has been revised upward by 2%, or 75 gigawatts. This adjustment is attributed to policy, regulatory, and market changes that have occurred since October 2025.
The forecast for China has been reduced by approximately 116 gigawatts. However, more positive outlooks for ASEAN countries, India, the United States, Sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America have offset this decline in China. The most significant positive change in percentage terms was recorded in Sub-Saharan Africa. In this region, solar energy is becoming an alternative source for millions of consumers during power supply interruptions.
"The primary reason for the downward revision of the forecast for China is a decline of more than 50%, year-on-year, in the growth of solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity from January through September 2026. The transition from fixed tariffs to a competitive auction mechanism has weakened the profitability of both large-scale and distributed solar energy projects.
In contrast, the growth of new onshore wind capacity has remained close to last year's record levels, leading to an upward revision of the forecast in this sector. This has been driven by policies supporting large-scale energy projects, as well as the fact that wind energy sales prices are approximately 40% higher than those for solar energy," the report said.
Forecasts for hydropower and concentrated solar power (CSP) in China have also been raised. This is attributed to the accelerated approval of pumped-storage hydropower plants, aimed at facilitating integration into the energy system, and the announcement of more ambitious targets for CSP in December 2025. Meanwhile, forecasts for offshore wind energy have been downgraded due to rising costs following the transition to competitive auctions, as well as limited support at the provincial level. In the bioenergy sector, development has slowed, reflecting a weakening growth rate for waste-to-energy projects beyond 2024.
