Baku, Azerbaijan, Sept.12
By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:
Oil demand growth will be significantly higher in the second half of 2019, Trend reports with reference to the Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).
“Our 2019 and 2020 global oil demand growth forecasts are unchanged at 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d) and 1.3 mb/d, respectively. Growth was 0.5 mb/d in 1H19 and fell as low as 0.2 mb/d in June. For 2H19, we assume no further deterioration in the economic climate and in trade disputes. Oil demand growth will be significantly higher helped by a comparison versus a low base in 2H18, lower oil prices versus a year ago and additions to petrochemicals capacity. July data show y-o-y growth of 1.3 mb/d,” reads the report.
“Our balances for 2H19 imply a stock draw of 0.8 mb/d, based on the assumption of flat OPEC production, stronger demand growth and weaker non-OPEC supply growth. However, this is only really a breather: the 2H19 non-OPEC growth, although modest by recent standards at “only” 1.3 mb/d, is measured against the high base set by the enormous production surge seen this time last year.”
So far in 2019, US crude oil production growth has stalled with June output only 45 kb/d higher than in December, according to IEA.
“Even so, output is still growing strongly on an annual basis, rising this year by 1.25 mb/d, with 1 mb/d of growth to come in 2020. In Norway, long awaited projects are coming on stream earlier than expected and may ramp up to peak production ahead of schedule. Oil production in Brazil is growing fast, reaching 3 mb/d in August, 0.4 mb/d higher than just two months earlier.”
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