BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 23. The global oil market is expected to run a surplus of 230,000 barrels per day (kb/d) in 2025 and widen to 700 kb/d in 2026, according to the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), Trend reports.
OIES estimated a third-quarter 2025 surplus of 830 kb/d, up 230 kb/d from last month, driven by 180 kb/d of stronger crude supply from OPEC+ and the United States, partly offset by 50 kb/d of weaker demand. The institute also raised its projected annual surpluses for 2025 and 2026 by roughly 50 kb/d.
For the fourth quarter of 2025, the market is expected to maintain an 840 kb/d surplus, widening in the first half of 2026 to an average 1.2 million b/d, before narrowing to 180 kb/d in the second half as OPEC+ supply normalizes and non-OPEC+ growth slows, while global demand remains firm. On an annual basis, supply is projected to exceed demand in 2025 for the first time since 2020, with 104.8 mb/d versus 104.6 mb/d, and remain ahead in 2026 at 106.4 mb/d versus 105.7 mb/d.
OECD commercial stocks stood 46.6 million barrels below the five-year average at the end of August, roughly 60 million barrels above previous OIES forecasts following data revisions, and broadly unchanged from 2024 levels. Stocks are expected to build through the fourth quarter of 2025, rise above the five-year average in the first half of 2026 by 38.8 million barrels, and ease back toward the average in the second half.
Preliminary October data through the week ending Oct. 19 showed global crude stocks declining for a third consecutive month by 36 million barrels since end-July, sitting 44 million barrels below the five-year average, while floating stocks fell 6.8 million barrels since end-August. Oil at sea reached its highest weekly level since 2020, up about 200 million barrels year-to-date, with roughly 60% of the increase tied to sanctioned barrels from Iran (23%), Venezuela (19%), and Russia (14%).
