DUSHANBE, Tajikistan, November 13. BMI, a subsidiary of Fitch Solutions, predicts that Tajikistan's net exports will likely decrease in 2023 and 2024, Trend reports.
The analysts explain that the recent decline in gold exports has contributed to a growing trade deficit in recent quarters. It was noted that Tajikistan's government made increasing its gold reserves a priority in 2022.
Concurrently, Tajikistan temporarily halted the export of all precious metals in order to limit the re-export of non-Tajik commodities to Russia as Western sanctions tighten in the first half of 2023. Furthermore, temporary limitations on the export of cement and some food goods have been imposed in 2023.
Meanwhile, strong domestic demand is fueling increased imports. Looking ahead, although export growth is expected to recover in 2024, a global economic slowdown, especially in manufacturing, may reduce demand for Tajikistan's key metal and mineral exports.
In summary, restrictions on gold exports and weaker global demand will impede Tajikistan's export growth, while robust domestic demand will support import growth. However, import growth is also expected to slow down in line with the decrease in domestic demand.
At the same time, BMI has revised its projections for Tajikistan's real GDP growth, raising forecasts from 6.5 percent to 7.3 percent in 2023 and from 4.8 percent to 6 percent in 2024.
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