BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 21. Developing countries are projected to increase their energy consumption by around 25% by 2050 as population growth and economic development drive higher demand, according to ExxonMobil’s latest Global Outlook: Our View to 2050.
The report estimates that more than 4 billion people currently live in countries where access to energy is below the level required to meet basic human development needs.
“Access to sufficient, affordable energy enables economic development,” ExxonMobil said, noting that improvements in technology and energy efficiency are expected to moderate the growth in energy demand as populations and prosperity increase.
According to the outlook, the global population is expected to expand by around 1.5 billion people by 2050, representing an increase of approximately 20% from current levels. Nearly all of the population growth is projected to take place in developing countries.
At the same time, global gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to increase by about 80%. Developing economies are expected to grow at roughly twice the rate of developed economies, raising their share of global GDP to more than 50% by 2050, compared with around 40% today.
The combination of population and economic growth is expected to result in energy consumption in developing countries being approximately 25% higher in 2050 than today, ExxonMobil said.
Energy access linked to living standards
ExxonMobil's analysis highlights a close relationship between energy consumption and living standards. Drawing on data from the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI), the company said countries with higher energy use generally record higher life expectancy, education levels and income per capita.
“Energy use and improved living standards go hand in hand. It is impossible to have one without the other,” the report states.
The company estimates that basic living standards require at least 50 million British thermal units (MMBtu) of energy per person annually. By comparison, developed countries currently consume more than three times that amount on average, at approximately 160 MMBtu per person.
Around 75% of energy consumption in developed economies is associated with manufacturing, business activities and commercial transportation, according to ExxonMobil.
Based on its analysis and UN HDI data, ExxonMobil estimates that more than 4 billion people live in countries where energy access remains below the level required to support basic human development, including housing, infrastructure, employment and mobility.
The report points to household cooking as one example of the consequences of inadequate access to reliable energy. In countries with limited energy access, households often rely on wood, coal or kerosene for cooking, including indoors.
Citing the World Health Organization, ExxonMobil notes that household air pollution is associated with approximately 3 million deaths annually, particularly as a result of the use of polluting fuels and technologies for cooking.
Improved access to reliable and affordable energy can enable households to shift toward cleaner cooking options, including electricity and natural gas, the company said.
Efficiency to curb per capita energy demand
Despite the projected 25% increase in total energy use in developing countries, ExxonMobil expects growth in per capita energy demand to remain limited.
The company attributes this to efficiency gains and technological advances that will reduce the amount of energy required to support economic activity and rising living standards.
ExxonMobil also examined a scenario in which all countries reach its estimated threshold for basic living standards of 50 MMBtu per person by 2050.
Under that scenario, even with significant efficiency improvements, the world would require nearly 20% more energy in 2050 than projected in ExxonMobil's base-case Global Outlook.
The finding underscores the scale of the energy challenge facing developing economies as population growth, industrialization and higher living standards increase demand while technological advances work to contain overall energy consumption.
The global energy-access gap remains a major challenge, particularly in developing economies, where population growth and economic development are expected to drive higher energy demand in the coming decades. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), around 730 million people worldwide still lack access to electricity, while nearly 2 billion people do not have access to clean cooking. The agency says expanding access to modern energy can improve productivity in agriculture and local industry, while also supporting health, education and broader economic development.
The United Nations similarly reports that 666 million people lacked access to electricity in 2023, while around 2.1 billion people continued to rely on polluting fuels and technologies for cooking. Although global access to electricity has continued to improve, progress remains uneven, with the largest gaps concentrated in developing regions.
At the same time, developing economies are becoming the main source of growth in global electricity demand. The IEA expects emerging and developing economies to account for about 85% of additional global electricity demand through 2027, reflecting economic expansion, industrial activity and rising ownership of appliances and other electricity-consuming technologies.
The growth in energy demand is expected to be partly offset by improvements in energy efficiency. UN data show that global primary energy intensity improved by 1.5% in 2023, although the pace of improvement remains below the level required to meet the UN's 2030 energy-efficiency target.
