BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 21. Global electricity demand is projected to increase by around 65% by 2050, driven by economic growth, improving living standards and rising electrification, according to ExxonMobil’s latest Global Outlook: Our View to 2050.
The industrial sector is expected to account for approximately 40% of the increase, making it the largest source of additional electricity demand. Growth will be driven both by expanding industrial activity and greater electrification of production, particularly in lower-temperature processes.
Residential and commercial buildings are each projected to account for around 20% of global electricity-demand growth through 2050. In residential buildings, higher demand will be linked to population growth and increased use of cooling and heating, particularly in developing economies, although efficiency improvements in buildings and appliances are expected to moderate consumption.
Commercial electricity demand is also expected to rise alongside economic activity and the expansion of data centers. ExxonMobil said data centers could have a significant impact on individual regions and power grids, although their effect is expected to be more moderate at the national and global levels.
The remaining 20% of global electricity-demand growth is projected to come from transportation, with passenger vehicles representing the largest source of additional electricity consumption, followed by regional trucks and buses.
Solar and wind to lead power-generation growth
Meeting rising electricity demand will require a broad mix of generation technologies, ExxonMobil said.
Solar and wind generation is projected to increase more than fourfold by 2050, accounting for around 85% of global power-demand growth. Natural gas-fired generation is also expected to increase by approximately 25%, with gas playing a growing role in maintaining grid stability as variable renewable generation expands.
“Nuclear power generation is projected to grow ~60% by 2050,” ExxonMobil said, citing increasing demand for firm, low-emission electricity and technological developments such as small modular reactors.
However, the company expects nuclear expansion to be constrained in part by the need to replace or upgrade aging reactors, many of which are approaching or have exceeded 40 years of operation.
ExxonMobil expects electricity to meet nearly all of the growth in end-use energy demand globally through 2050, reflecting the increasing electrification of industry, buildings and transportation.
OECD electricity demand also expected to increase
Electricity demand growth is not expected to be limited to developing economies. ExxonMobil projects electricity consumption in OECD countries to rise by approximately 35% by 2050, following roughly two decades of broadly flat demand.
The company attributes the expected increase to greater electrification of industry and transportation, as well as rising demand from data centers.
In the United States, electricity demand is projected to increase by more than 40% from 2025 levels by 2050, marking a reversal from the period of broadly stable demand seen over the previous two decades.
Industry and transportation are expected to account for around two-thirds of U.S. electricity-demand growth, broadly reflecting the global trend.
ExxonMobil also expects substantial regional differences in power-generation mixes through 2050, influenced by access to domestic gas, renewable resources, economic conditions, government policies and energy-security considerations. While renewables are projected to expand across all regions, gas is expected to retain a larger role in areas with abundant domestic supplies, while regions dependent on imported fuels are projected to see stronger renewable growth alongside continued coal use.
The global power sector is entering a period of accelerating electricity demand growth, with industrial expansion, electrification, cooling, electric vehicles and data centers emerging as major drivers. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global electricity demand increased by around 3% in 2025, after rising 4.4% in 2024. The agency expects demand growth to accelerate to an average of 3.6% annually between 2026 and 2030, adding around 1,100 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity demand each year, compared with an average of about 700 TWh annually during 2015-2025.
Emerging markets and developing economies are driving much of this expansion. They accounted for around 80% of global electricity-demand growth in 2025, and the IEA expects them to maintain a similar share over the next five years. At the same time, electricity demand is increasing in advanced economies as industrial activity, data centers, electric vehicles and other forms of electrification create new loads on power systems.
The growth in electricity consumption is occurring alongside a rapid expansion of low-emissions generation. The IEA estimates that renewables and nuclear power together accounted for more than the total increase in global electricity generation in 2025, while fossil-fuel generation declined overall. Renewable generation almost matched coal-fired generation globally in 2025.
Looking ahead to 2030, the IEA expects renewable power capacity to expand by around 4,600 GW, with solar PV accounting for almost 80% of the increase. Renewables are forecast to provide more than 90% of global electricity-demand growth through 2030, highlighting the growing role of solar and wind as electricity consumption rises.
