BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 21. Global energy-related CO₂ emissions are projected to peak this decade and then decline by around 20% by 2050, even as the global economy expands and living standards improve, according to ExxonMobil’s latest Global Outlook: Our View to 2050.
ExxonMobil estimates that energy-related CO₂ emissions will peak at approximately 36 billion metric tons per year sometime this decade before falling to around 30 billion metric tons annually by 2050.
The company attributes the projected decline to improvements in energy efficiency and greater use of lower-emissions technologies, including renewable energy, carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen and biofuels, alongside a reduction in coal consumption.
“Efficiency improvements and renewables are necessary but not a complete solution,” ExxonMobil said, arguing that technologies such as hydrogen, CCS and biofuels will be needed to address emissions from sectors that are more difficult to decarbonize.
More action needed to meet climate goals
Despite the projected decline, ExxonMobil said the pace of emissions reduction would remain insufficient to meet climate objectives consistent with limiting global temperature increases to below 2°C.
The company said the average of the IPCC's “Likely Below 2°C” scenarios requires energy-related CO₂ emissions to fall to approximately 11 billion metric tons per year by 2050 — substantially below the roughly 30 billion metric tons projected in ExxonMobil's outlook.
ExxonMobil also noted that global energy demand is expected to increase through 2050 as the world's population grows and economies develop.
According to the company, so-called hard-to-decarbonize sectors, including commercial transportation, manufacturing and industrial production, currently account for approximately 45% of global CO₂ emissions, including process emissions but excluding indirect emissions from electricity use.
The company said these sectors will require a wider range of technologies to reduce emissions, rather than relying solely on efficiency improvements and renewable power.
Global emissions continue to rise
ExxonMobil's outlook notes that global energy-related CO₂ emissions continued to increase by approximately 1% in 2025, broadly in line with the average annual growth rate recorded over the past two decades.
The company argues that this trend highlights the challenge of simultaneously meeting rising energy demand and reducing emissions.
It also points to what it describes as multiple potential pathways for achieving climate objectives, giving policymakers scope to balance emissions reductions with energy affordability and security.
ExxonMobil said that more than two decades after the Kyoto Protocol entered into force and more than a decade after the Paris Agreement, the continued rise in energy-related emissions indicates that additional approaches may be needed to accelerate reductions.
The company also cites IPCC scenarios as highlighting the importance of considering the overall climate impact of policies rather than focusing exclusively on the timing of net-zero greenhouse-gas emissions. According to ExxonMobil, policies that constrain energy supply too quickly could contribute to higher energy prices and economic disruption.
Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are taking place against a backdrop of rising energy demand and continued reliance on fossil fuels. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global energy-related CO₂ emissions increased by around 0.4% in 2025, reaching a new record of approximately 38.4 billion metric tons. The increase was slower than in 2024, as stronger growth in renewable power, nuclear generation, electrification and other clean-energy technologies helped limit emissions growth.
The IEA said emissions from coal increased by around 0.5% in 2025, while oil-related emissions rose by approximately 0.4%. At the same time, emissions from natural gas increased by around 0.5%. The agency noted that the expansion of solar PV, wind, nuclear power and electric vehicles helped avoid a significantly larger increase in emissions.
