BAKU, Azerbaijan, Oct. 1
By Sadraddin Aghjayev - Trend:
Russia’s Gazprombank expects the Moody’s international rating agency to raise the sovereign credit rating of Azerbaijan by one notch - to "Ba1" with a "stable" outlook following a planned revision in the first half of October, Gulnara Haydarshina, Deputy Head of the Market Analysis Department of Gazprombank, told Trend.
According to Haydarshina, the basis for such a decision is a stable recovery trend in the hydrocarbon market, a stable situation in the foreign exchange market, an increase in international reserves, a planned transition to fiscal consolidation from next year, a decrease in the economy's dependence on hydrocarbons in the medium term due to large-scale projects in Karabakh.
“Moody’s decision to revise the forecast to "positive" was the result of an increase in the effectiveness of the economic policy pursued in Azerbaijan. This will help improve the credit profile of this issuer in the medium term,” she said.
“The agency noted the progress in the implementation of macroeconomic and monetary policies, which made it possible to strengthen the economy's resilience to external shocks, as well as the effective use of significant fiscal buffers, which minimizes the risk of deterioration in fiscal indicators and debt burden,” she said.
The rating of Azerbaijan was downgraded by Moody’s in August 2017 to Ba2, when the economy was in stagnation and the situation in the banking system was difficult.
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