BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 19. Global oil demand in 2026 will decline by 2.5 million barrels per day, with the Middle East and Asia accounting for 80% of this decline.
This was reported in information published on the International Energy Agency (IEA) website.
However, the report notes that global oil demand over the past six months has averaged 5.8 million barrels per day below February levels, corresponding to a cumulative decline in demand of more than 1 billion barrels.
"The largest decline was recorded in China, where oil imports, refinery utilization rates, and petroleum product shipments have fallen significantly compared to the period before the war began. Actual oil demand in China over the past six months was 1.7 million barrels per day lower than in February and 1.1 million barrels per day lower than during the same six-month period a year earlier. Seaborne crude oil imports into China fell sharply from 11.5 million barrels per day in February to a low of 6 million barrels per day in June, which significantly eased pressure on other oil importers in Asia.
The decline in demand from end users is also intensifying in other markets. A significant drop was observed in the Middle East, where petrochemical operations and air travel were curtailed. “Some governments, particularly in Asian countries, have imposed fuel consumption restrictions and emergency conservation measures, while shortages of petroleum products and rising prices have led to a decline in consumption in other countries,” the agency reports.
Meanwhile, it is noted that global oil demand in the second quarter of 2026 fell by 5.3 million barrels per day year-over-year, marking the first quarterly decline since the COVID-19 pandemic: “The main factor behind the decline was diesel, for which demand fell by 1.2 million barrels per day year-over-year, along with a combined decrease in supplies of naphtha, liquefied petroleum gas, and ethane totaling 1.8 million barrels per day.”
“By the end of the year, global oil demand is expected to decline by 2.5 million barrels per day, with the Middle East and Asia accounting for 80% of that decline.”
Even after these adjustments to supply and demand, global oil reserves have been declining at a record pace over the past six months—by 2.8 million barrels per day. Actual oil reserves are now 507 million barrels below the level recorded at the start of the war. IEA member countries released more than 300 million barrels of emergency reserves as part of a historic joint decision announced on March 11.
Crude oil stocks in non-OECD countries accounted for 105 million barrels of the total decline, 65% of which came from onshore storage facilities in China. The remainder of the decline is mainly attributable to a reduction in the volume of oil in transit,” the IEA reports.
Notably, against the backdrop of rapidly shrinking reserves, there is a growing need to fully restore operations in the Strait of Hormuz and along alternative routes. Any further disruptions that hinder the full resumption of production and exports will have a significant impact on markets around the world.
