BAKU, Azerbaijan, November 3. Electricity exports from Central Asia to China could become a long-term strategic option for the region, but their implementation would require confirmed demand, clear commercial terms, and an assessment of technical feasibility.
This is stated in the report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), "Energy Without Borders: Architecture of Energy Connectivity in Central Asia," provided exclusively to Trend.
According to the report, China has extensive experience in high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission technologies, renewable energy, grid construction and battery energy storage systems. This could give Central Asian countries potential access to capital, technology and new markets.
However, the eastward route should currently be viewed as a strategic project option rather than an established export corridor. The publicly available materials used in the report do not confirm a potential buyer, supply volumes, a route, a technical configuration, a commercial model, or the allocation of risks.
"The Chinese market is not homogeneous. The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region is geographically close to Central Asia, but proximity does not automatically translate into demand for imported electricity. China is actively developing its own generation capacity, ultra-high-voltage grids, renewable energy and interregional transmission lines. The practical question, therefore, is whether there is a specific creditworthy buyer, a connection point, a pricing formula and a long-term contractual model," the report states.
From a technical perspective, electricity transmission eastward would likely require HVDC technology or another controllable grid interconnection scheme. Such solutions allow power flows to be managed and help reduce risks to grid stability without requiring the power systems to operate in strict synchronization.
However, the necessary infrastructure would require substantial capital investment and large, guaranteed electricity supply volumes, the report notes.
Another key consideration is how an export project would be integrated into Central Asia’s regional power system. According to the EDB, a model focused exclusively on exporting electricity from individual large power plants could have limited benefits for the region’s interconnected grid.
By contrast, integrating the eastward route into the broader regional energy system could increase the economic value of renewable energy, create additional external demand, build expertise in HVDC technologies and attract investment.
Realizing this potential would require a separate preliminary feasibility study, confirmation of buyer interest, an assessment of technical standards and an analysis of the potential impact of exports on the reliability of electricity supplies within Central Asia.
The EDB emphasizes that developing the region’s interconnected power system remains a necessary foundation for export projects. Coordinated efforts by Central Asian countries could strengthen the region’s negotiating position and reduce the dependence of potential electricity exports on a single external buyer.
