BAKU, Azerbaijan, September 29. Moody’s Ratings expects non-oil sectors to remain the main drivers of Kazakhstan’s economic growth, the agency said in its rationale for affirming Kazakhstan’s Baa1 rating.
“We expect non-oil sectors to remain the main drivers of growth, while recovering oil production will support overall expansion. Sustained investments in transport, energy and digital infrastructure will broaden economic opportunities,” Moody’s said.
The agency noted that prospects for productivity gains remain uncertain and will depend on project execution, broader private sector involvement and sustained institutional improvements.
According to Moody’s, Kazakhstan’s economic profile is supported by robust medium-term growth prospects, continued diversification away from hydrocarbons and movement up the value chain.
"Real GDP grew 4.1% in the first eight months of 2026 even though the mining and quarrying sector contracted 4.3%, as non-oil growth of 5.3% more than offset weaker oil and gas production. Manufacturing, construction, transportation and trade continued to expand, supported by infrastructure investment and domestic demand", Moody's said.
The agency also noted that constitutional, electoral and judicial changes have expanded access to legal remedies, strengthened the Constitutional Court and Ombudsman, and increased transparency in judicial appointments and administrative proceedings.
Anti-corruption measures have broadened asset-declaration and conflict-of-interest requirements and expanded digital oversight. The new constitutional succession framework also reduces uncertainty surrounding an unexpected leadership transition.
At the same time, the agency pointed out that Kazakhstan remains exposed to geopolitical risks because the Caspian Pipeline Consortium pipeline carries most of its oil exports through Russian territory. Attacks and operational disruptions temporarily reduced exports and production over 2025-26, although volumes recovered quickly and the effect on credit fundamentals has been limited.
Moody’s affirmed the Government of Kazakhstan’s local and foreign currency long-term issuer ratings at Baa1, with a stable outlook. The agency also affirmed the foreign currency senior unsecured debt and MTN programme ratings at Baa1 and (P)Baa1, respectively.
